Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
29/08/2020. S-No 150.
Over two reporting days, of August 28, 2020, since the release of the previous monitor, negative trends in the development of the epidemic in the countries we monitored and the pandemic in general persist (see Fig. 1–4).
Nevertheless, we would like to note that among all the countries that are the object of our observations, only China does not experience shocks for many months, demonstrating a consistent asymptotic approximation of the value of the progress indicator to its limit equal to one (see Fig. 1–2, 5- 6).
The leaders and outsiders of our ratings also do not change (Fig. 5–6).
The leaders in the rating of two-day changes (Japan, Israel, Brazil, USA) continue to provide an increase in the progress indicator due to high growth rates of those who recovered, despite a very high level of new infections.
The outsiders of this rating (South Korea, France, Ukraine, Italy) demonstrate uncompensated high levels of new infections, which leads to a decrease in the value of the progress indicator.
The overall rating of countries by the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 6) experiences only local subtle disturbances from time to time, expressed in the change of positions by their neighbors in the rating, often several times in both directions over a short period of time.
All this indicates the consolidation (stabilization) of the existing negative trends in the development of the pandemic, which does not allow hoping for noticeable changes for the better in the near future.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
For clarity, Diagram 4 shows only “outsiders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: