Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

17/08/2020. No S-141.

Over the past two reporting days of August 16, 2020, the nature of the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the epidemics we tracked and the pandemic as a whole remained practically unchanged (see Fig. 1–3).

Noticeable changes have occurred only in the rating shown in Fig. 4, which reflects the level of progress in the progress indicator for the reporting period in different countries.

This time, Japan became the leader, which has completely mastered Israel’s “technology” and the high level of new infected (at the level of 1300 people per day) with a margin (for the growth of the progress indicator) compensates for the high level of those who recovered. To understand the “deep” meaning of this “technique”, we note that before the second wave of the epidemic in Japan, on average, about 300 people recovered per day. Since during this time, as far as we know, no revolutions in medicine have been accomplish, one can easily guess how and why the daily rate of recovered people is growing in this country, and at the same time in Israel.

Countries at the opposite end of the ranking are frankly losing the fight for the health of their citizens to the coronavirus. France has dropped to around 3,000 new infections per day. With Ukraine, everything is clear. South Korea has shown in the past two days the number of new infections on average more than 4 times higher than many previous days.

In the overall rating (Fig. 5), unnoticed by observers, Turkey has moved into second place. Having no success in countering the epidemic (in terms of the number of new infections, which for a long period exceeds 1000 people per day), this country constantly maintains the daily rate of recovered at a level that allows a consistent increase in the level of the progress indicator. It is clear that this has little to do with the victory over the coronavirus, but it guarantees some nice looking indicators.

Otherwise, the placement of countries in this ranking remains stable amid a steadily growing pandemic.

In general, the situation in the world can be characterized as an active offensive of the coronavirus on a wide front, under the onslaught of which even the authorities recognized in the recent past cannot resist, i.e. countries that have successfully localized the first powerful wave of coronavirus spread. What then can we say about countries that do not have such a positive experience in their assets?



The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistical data:

Our materials also:

Accuracy of our forecasts: (Germany) (Spain) (Italy) (USA) (Ukraine) (France) (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: