Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
18/06/2020. No 91.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 17, 2020.
Over the past day, the epidemics in Germany, Israel, China and South Korea did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with difficulties in going through the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.57% and 5.58%, respectively). However, the value of the IP progress indicator decreased again, reaching 99.70% versus 99.75%, which was the result of a significant number of new infections.
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased to 4.71% (the day before it was 4.73%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.01%, reaching 4.89%, the value of the progress indicator IP decreased to 96.32% versus 99.62% due to a significant number of new infections.
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has stepped forward towards the final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 95.20% against 94.55% in the previous day. At the same time, the mortality rate I (TC) increased to 5.28% (the day before it was 5.27%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.02%, reaching 5.55%,
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.
Brazil has risen in two positions. With complete inability to control the coronavirus epidemic in this country, there is a high growth rate and the number of convalesced, which from time to time positively affects the level of the IP progress indicator.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
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Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators