Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
02/07/2020. No 105.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 1, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, the United States, France, and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).
In these countries, the main causes of the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with increased spread of coronavirus in the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. Israel, showing a sharp decline over the course of many days, moved to the category of “average” in our ranking, leaving the group of “leaders” (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 3). It turns out that this can also be if weaken control over the spread of infection.
The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.55% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.01% (99.50%). This was the result of a small number of new infections (3 people) and recovery of 10 people, which resulted in an excess of the growth of closed cases in relation to new cases of infection.
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.62%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased (4.80% versus 4.81%), the value of the IP progress indicator increased (96.20% against 96 , 08%). This was the result of the excess of the number of closed cases (recovered and dead) over the number of new infections, which is still very large.
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to the level of 94.56% against 94.68% in the previous reporting day. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) also decreased and reached the level of 5.20% (against 5.23%), the value of the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.50% against 5.52%). Such dynamics of these indicators was due to the excess of the number of new infections over the number of closed cases.
The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. During the reporting day, the situation in it of the countries has not changed.
Today in fig. 5–9 are charts characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and in the USA. Despite the fact that recently the data on the USA in international monitoring systems have changed significantly (retroactively), this has not affected the general trends. Such changes are critical only for forecast calculations, the implementation of which in this regard, for this country, we have also suspended.
As we noted in yesterday’s forecast monitor (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/157745202535050), the statistics in Ukraine in recent days are abnormal, which casts doubt on the correctness of the reflection of the real picture in it. Therefore, we will not give any new comments, except for those that are shown in the indicated monitor.
Nevertheless, let us turn to one important fact. This is a semblance of the nature of the diagrams in Fig. 5, as well as fig. 6–9. Given the fact that in yesterday’s statistical monitor (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/157545442555026), we noted similarities with the development trends of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia, as well as the fact that the epidemic in the United States, and in Russia, experts are poorly managed, the conclusion that the epidemic of the coronavirus in Ukraine belongs to the category of epidemics suggests itself.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: