Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
27/08/2020. S-No 149.
Over two reporting days, of August 26, 2020, since previous monitor release, negative trends in the development of the epidemic in the countries we monitored and the pandemic in general persist (see Fig. 1–4).
The behavior strategy of leaders and outsiders of our rating of current changes has not changed either (see Fig. 5).
The leaders in the two-day increase in the level of the progress indicator (Israel, Brazil, and Japan) continue to provide an increase in this indicator due to the high increase in recovered, despite the very high level of new infections.
Outsiders of this ranking (South Korea, France, Ukraine, Italy) show high levels of new infections, which significantly reduces the value of the progress development index of the epidemic in these countries.
The constancy of trends in the development of epidemics in all these countries violated only by South Korea, which in two days dropped in the overall ranking in terms of the progress indicator by four positions (Fig. 6). At the same time, the mutual arrangement of other countries has not changed.
In recent days in South Korea, the number of new infections is approaching the anti-record level of the first days of the epidemic in this country. The current level of the progress indicator in South Korea corresponds to the level of 4 months ago. An astonishing setback in a country that has been a model for suppressing the spread of coronavirus.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
For clarity, Diagram 4 shows only “outsiders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: