Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
05/07/2020. No 108.
Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 4, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Germany, Israel, France, South Korea, and Japan did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In all these countries, the main causes of regression in the development of epidemics are associated with increased spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.55% and 5.57%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased from 99.51% to 99.52%.
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased by 0.01% (4.60%), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.77%), the value of the IP progress indicator decreased from 96.48 to 96, 44% due to a significant number of new cases of new infections (418 people).
In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (14.44%), the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased by 0.02% (15.39%), the value of the IP progress indicator has increased from 93.83% to 93.94% due to the significant number of people who recovered during the reporting day (477 people) with a relatively high level (235 people) of new infections.
The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4. The location of countries in it during the reporting day has not changed.
Today in fig. 5–9 are charts characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main (mainly daily) indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and in the world, with the exception of mainland China. The dynamics of key indicators in this region are determined by countries that have problems with curbing the epidemic.
Comparison of these diagrams reveals a significant similarity of the trends in the development of the epidemic in Ukraine and the pandemic in all countries of the world (with the exception of China) as a whole, which makes it almost impossible to classify Ukraine as a country with a poorly controlled epidemic (if you do not consider control to be a simple observation of events).
The only positive trend in Ukraine is the growth trend in the number of people who have recovered, providing that this is not only the result of a change in the methodology for confirming the fact of recovery (according to the results of one test instead of two).
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: