Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
04/09/2020. S-No 153.
Over two reporting days, of September 3, 2020, since the previous statistical monitor release, negative trends in the development of the epidemic in the countries we monitored and the coronavirus pandemic in the world as a whole persist (see Fig. 1–3).
Recent times the same “leaders” in the rating of local (in time) changes in the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 4) demonstrate some excess of the flow of recovered patients over the flow of new patients with a high level of the latter, thereby achieving an increase in the values of this indicator.
“Outsiders” cannot do such strategy due to the lag in the rate of recovery patients from the rate of inflow of new infected.
As a result, the overall ranking in terms of the progress indicator of coronavirus epidemics development in various fears and pandemic in general (Fig. 5) practically does not change for many days.
It indicates the absence of any tangible success in the whole world in the fight against coronavirus and the stalemate.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken a number of some individual countries.
Other diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases if there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting dynamics of the epidemics development in initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the epidemics development quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: