Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

22/06/2020. No 95.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154565176186386

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of the progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 21, 2020.

Over the past reporting day, epidemics in Germany, Israel, China, the United States, Ukraine, France, South Korea, and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, with the exception of Ukraine, in which the epidemic was never taken under effective control, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are related to the difficulties of going through the phase of easing the quarantine regime.

The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.56% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and reached 99.60% (99.63% a day earlier).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased again (4.68% against 4.69%, this is a consequence of a significant number of new infections), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (4.87% against 4.88%), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to fall (95.97% against 96.05% a day earlier).

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan took a step back in its development. The indicator of the progress of the epidemic in this country decreased by 0.28% to the level of 95.50%. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) decreased to the level of 5.33% (the day before it was 5.35%), the value of the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (5.59%). This was the result of a large increase in the number of infected over the past reporting day.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in it has not changed.

In the diagrams of Fig. 5–9, the main daily indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are presented. All of them demonstrate unfavorable trends resulting from an ill-conceived weakening of the quarantine regime.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine