Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
16.05.2020. No 59.
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 16, 2020.
Most countries, with the exception of Iran and Japan, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).
In China all the main indicators have not changed. Progress indicator remained at the level of 99.89%. The case fatality rates I(TC) and I(CC) are at the level of 5.59% and 5.59%, respectively (Fig. 1, 11).
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world, that we are monitoring, are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day Italy regained a higher position, which it lost day before yesterday in favour of Japan. The ranking of other countries hasn’t changed.
Fig. 6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose.
Fig. 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until the present time.
As regards coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine, compared to the last review of the statistics monitor, we would like to note with regret as follows: “However, quarantine measures are liberalized in the country no matter what”.
In this issue we publish diagrams for coronavirus pandemic in the world with the exception of the epidemic in mainland China, analogues to diagrams 6–10 on Ukraine. The aim of such diagrams is to provide a possibility to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and other countries and regions of the world.
Fig. 11–15 describe the indicators of COVID-19 pandemic in the world, except China, which has nothing new in the world statistics since the outbreak in this country is at the stationary level.
As a comment, let’s only note the following circumstances:
The global fatality rate (Fig. 11) is in the range of 6.65% to 15.11%, which is a fairly high level.
Graphs on Fig. 12 and Fig. 14 for pandemic are similar to graphs Fig. 7 and Fig. 9 for the coronavirus outbreak of in Ukraine.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together , China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
The forecast for the outbreaks’ completion dates is calculated using a linear trend, determined by statistical data for the last decade of the observation period.