Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
24.05.2020. No 66.
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 23, 2020.
Most of the countries we’ve been monitoring, with the exception of Spain (where is quite high level of cumulative reported cases for the third day in a row), as well as China (the outbreak has stopped its progress), over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).).
In China, the values of all indicators considered in our statistical monitors haven’t changed again: the progress indicator IP is 99,90%, case fatality rates I(TC) and I (CC) — 5,59% (Fig. 1).
The coronavirus outbreak in South Korea took a small step towards completion. For the past day, the value of the progress indicator in the country increased to 93,69% vs 93,57%. Germany is still behind South Korea (progress indicator in this country has reached 93,12%).
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day Brazil has moved one position down on the rating-list, behind the Total Cases (worldwide). The ranking of other countries remained unchanged.
Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.
There is no change for better in Ukraine. It should be reminded that both the government and citizens are responsible for COVID-19 outbreak spread in the country. Therefore, there is no in-between.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
Source of statistics:
Our initiative group and mission:
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress: