Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

03/07/2020. No 106.

Statistical Monitor

03/07/2020. No 106.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/158237405819163

Before proceeding to a summary of the status of the progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 2, 2020, we note once again that in the well-known databases for monitoring the spread of the coronavirus COVID- 19 regularly changes retroactively. Tracking all such changes is impossible and inappropriate. Our experience indicates that such changes do not significantly affect the patterns of development of events and their reflection in statistics as a whole, namely they are the object of our observations.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, China, France and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).

In these countries, the main causes of the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with increased spread of coronavirus in the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. Especially in this “succeeded” Israel, which today will be featured together with Ukraine in a brief review of daily indicators of the development of the coronavirus epidemic?

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP have not changed (5.55%, 5.58% and 99.50%, respectively).

In Germany, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) decreased by 0.01% (4.61% and 4.79%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased to 96.26% (against 96.20% in last reporting day). This was the result of an excess of the number of closed cases (recovered and dead) over the number of new infections, which is still large in Germany.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to the level of 94.03% against 94.56% in the previous reporting day. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) also decreased and reached the level of 5.17% (against 5.20%), the value of the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.49% against 5.50%). Such dynamics of these indicators was due to the excess of the number of new infections over the number of closed cases.

The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.

During the reporting day, Israel and France fell by one position. The location of other countries has not changed.

Today in fig. 5–9 are diagrams characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main (mainly daily) indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and Israel.

Israel at the initial stage of the epidemic took one of the most radical measures to curb the spread of coronavirus. These yielded obvious results (see Fig. 5b-9b). This country is also distinguished by an extremely low number of deaths (Fig. 7b). This, as well as other factors, as a result, led to a sharp weakening of control over the spread of the epidemic and, as a result, to a rapid increase in the number of new infections (Fig. 6b) and regression in the development of the epidemic as a whole (Fig. 5b).

Ukraine, having not achieved at the first stage neither such progress in the development of the epidemic, nor a similar mortality rate, demonstrates a high degree of similarity of negative trends in the development of the epidemic in the second phase, which does not inspire optimism in the near future.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/14845055679

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine