Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor
06/14/2020. No 87.

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 13, 2020.

Over the past day, the epidemics in Israel, China, Turkey, France, and South Korea did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). In all these countries, with the exception of Turkey, the reasons lie in the difficulties of transition to the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. Turkey still has a high level of new infections, which adversely affects progress in the development of the epidemic.

In China, as in the previous monitor, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) did not change (5.58% and 5.58%), while the IP progress indicator fell back 0.01% ( 99.91%).

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany, after a one-day pause, continued to move to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 96.45% against 96.37% in the previous reporting day.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has also advanced in its development. The value of the daily progress indicator for this country has grown and reached the level of 94.95% against 94.71%.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.

Over the past reporting day, Italy bypassed Turkey, and Brazil once again swapped places with Russia. This time, the epidemic in Brazil took a higher position. These “swings”, apparently, are associated with the characteristics of Brazilian statistics. Regularly, in the line “The number of people recovered per day”, zeros appear in front of this country. In the next day or two, large numbers appear there. Since the number of recoveries directly affects the value of the progress index, fluctuations in the values ​​of this indicator are also observed, which, in turn, leads to regular jumps in one or the other direction of Brazil in the ranking.

The location of other countries in the ranking over the past reporting day has not changed.

As graphs 5–9 show, the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Ukraine continues on all fronts.

The reasons for this are obvious enough for those who monitor our monitors, and those who have a general idea of ​​the main factors that determine the patterns of the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values ​​of both indicators of mortality should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

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Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators