Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)

Statistical monitor
15.05.2020. No 57.

We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 14, 2020.

Each and every country, except Iran, where there is a relatively high level of new cases several days at a time, showed a positive trend of progress over the past day (fig. 1–4).

In China, the level of progress indicator has risen slightly (99.88% vs 99,87%). The values of the case fatality rates I(TC) and I(CC) haven’t changed (5.59% and 5,60%, respectively).

Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world, that we are monitoring, are shown in Fig. 5. The countries’ ranking over the past day hasn’t changed.

Fig. 6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Fig. 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until the present time.

According to the Fig. 7 it’s clear that an emerging peak of new cases in Ukraine is spreading out over time, which cannot be considered as a positive phenomenon. However, due to the variability of this daily rate, any firm conclusions on this issue would be premature.

Also, the trend of increasing number of deaths (Fig. 8) looks disappointing.

The trend of the number of recovered and active cases in Ukraine to date (Fig. 9, 10) remained positive.

In this issue we publish diagrams for coronavirus outbreak in Israel, analogues to diagrams 6–10 on Ukraine, which is far ahead of many of the monitored countries as regards the level of progress and is characterized by specific features in the COVID-19 outbreak development. The aim of such diagrams is to provide a possibility to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and other countries of the world.

Based on the analysis of Fig. 11–15, we would like to pay attention to the following:

First of all, this is a very low level of actual and forecasted fatality (Fig. 11).

Despite strict quarantine measures, Israel has failed to avoid a large number of infections (Fig. 12). This phenomenon needs to be studied.

All the graphs (Fig. 12–15) have well defined peaks, which may indicate a high level of control over the outbreak. Nevertheless, recent statistics doesn’t correspond to this rosy picture. One doesn’t have to be a great forecaster in order to understand the main reasons for these local disturbances and to relate them to the liberalization of quarantine terms.
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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together , China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values ​​of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

The forecast for the outbreaks’ completion dates is calculated using a linear trend, determined by statistical data for the last decade of the observation period.

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Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine