Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
07/08/2020. No 134.
According to the official statistics as of August 6, 2020, the dynamics of the values of the IP progress indicator for the countries we tracked looks like this, as shown in Fig. 1–3.
In fig. 3 continues to highlight the trajectories of the IP epidemic progress indicators values in Israel and Japan, which until recently were recognized leaders in containing the spread of the coronavirus.
Israel, against the background of a large number of new infections, has recently continued to show a significant number of recovered. Japan has also significantly increased the number of recovered in recent days, which allowed it to stop the fall in the level of the progress indicator.
Changes in the values of the progress indicator over the past two days are showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.
In all countries showing an increase in the level of the progress indicator, and this is Israel, Russia, the United States, Ukraine, South Korea, this is achieved due to a certain excess of the number of recovered and deaths over the number of new infections, with a significant level of the latter. As we noted earlier, this indicates the low quality of progress in the development of epidemics in these countries.
In contrast, the outsiders of this rating, Germany and France, show a significant excess of the number of new infections over the number of closed cases, which leads to a decrease in the values of progress indicators in these countries.
All this as a whole determines a certain stability of the rating of countries in terms of the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 5), in which periodically there are micro-advances that do not change the general situation.
Reaching the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: