Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)

Statistical monitor

19.05.2020. No 61.

(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/141658574143713)

We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 18, 2020.

Each and every country we’ve been monitoring, again except Iran, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).

In China, the values of all indicators considered in our statistical monitors have not changed: progress indicator is IP 99,90%, the case fatality rates I(TC) and I(CC) — 5,59% (Fig. 1).

The coronavirus outbreak in South Korea continues its movement towards completion. In the past 24 hours, the value of the progress indicator in the country increased from 91,86% to 92,08%. Germany is very close to South Korea (progress indicator has reached 91,78%).

Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day Israel surpassed Spain, having traded places. The ranking of countries and regions of the world hasn’t changed over the past day.

Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

The analysis of these graphs suggests that the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine is unfavorable in almost all main indicators of the outbreak.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Fig. 3 shows the “average”.

Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values ​​of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

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Source of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine