Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readAug 15, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

15/08/2020. No 140.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/172518934391010

According to the statistics of August 14, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the tracked epidemics and the pandemic as whole looks like it is show in Fig. 1–3.

We will only pay attention to the following points (see Fig. 3).

The dynamics of the pandemic progress indicator (Total Cases (worldwide)) is almost identical, with a few exceptions, to the dynamics of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. This directly indicates the main driver of the pandemic in the world.

In Israel, patients recover daily (I want to write, patients are discharged, but we have no evidence base for this) in gigantic numbers. Against the background of a large number of new infections, this leads to an increase in the level of the progress indicator.

This can found in the diagram in Fig. 4.

Israel is in the lead in this rating. Japan, repeating the same tactics, follows him. Russia also maintains an approximate parity between the growth of new infections and the growth of those who recovered, with a steady slight prevalence of the latter figure.

Countries at the opposite end of this ranking cannot afford this path of development of the coronavirus epidemic and are frankly losing points of the progress indicator, demonstrating an uncompensated increase in the number of new infected (Fig.5). It should be note that if in France such effect is achieve with thousands of new infections per day, then in South Korea — with fifty. This is a feature of relative indicators, which include the progress indicator. This always should be borne in mind when nature of the development comparing of the coronavirus epidemic in different countries.

In general, over the past two reporting days, due to stable trends in the development of the pandemic and the coronavirus epidemic in the countries within our sphere of interest, the overall ranking of countries in terms of progress has not undergone significant changes.

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Note.

The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)