Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)

Statistical monitor

18.05.2020. No 60.

We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 17, 2020.

Each and every country we’ve been monitoring, except Iran, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).

In China, the indicator of the progress IP has increased from 99.89% to 99,90%. The case fatality rates I(TC) and I(CC) remained at 5.59% (Fig. 1, 11).

In general, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. The ranking of countries and regions of the world hasn’t changed over the past day.

Note.

Within several days, there is no data on the cumulative reported recovered and active cases (the number of current patients) in the international system to monitor the spread of COVID-19 for the Netherlands. In this regard, the graphs, characterizing the outbreak in this country, should be considered based on this fact. This is also a reason for excluding the coronavirus outbreak in the Netherlands from our statistical monitors, which is currently considered by our working group.

Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

As regards the outbreak of coronavirus in Ukraine in recent days, there is nothing new so far. According to our estimates, the general trends of the outbreak in the country can’t be considered encouraging (see Fig. 7, 8).

In this issue we publish diagrams for coronavirus pandemic in the world, analogues to diagrams Fig. 6–10 on Ukraine. The aim of such diagrams is to provide a possibility to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and other countries and regions of the world.

The diagrams Fig. 11–15 describe the main indicators of COVID-19 pandemic in the world. When considering these diagrams, we would like to draw attention to the following circumstances.

The trajectory of the case fatality rates and indicator of progress in Fig. 11 are gradual and differ, in the initial segment, from trajectories of the same indicators of outbreaks in other countries. This is due to the following factors.

Firstly, the beginning of the observations. By this time the coronavirus outbreak in China was at the maturity stage and made a significant contribute to global statistics. As we have repeatedly noted, at this stage, the case fatality rate I(TC) increases, the case fatality rate I(CC) is reduced, and fluctuation in the values of the rates, which is typical for the initial stage of development of the epidemics, subsides (no fluctuation).

Secondly, pandemic in the world, as an outbreak in any region, is a set of local outbreaks, separated in time (beginning of outbreak and timing of development). Thus, the pandemic’s properties in general, are in direct dependence on the outbreaks’ timing differences.

Considering these two circumstances, the nature of the indicators’ trajectories, Fig. 11, should be interpreted as follows. At the beginning of the observation period (by our group), the statistics and trends of the outbreak in China were dominated in aggregate statistics and general trends. As the pandemic progresses, China’s contribution to the overall statistics was declined, and general trends of the pandemic in the world has acquired the classic look of a developing pandemic (outbreak), which is characterized by the growth trend of case fatality rate I(TC), reduce of case fatality rate I(CC), gradual growth of indicator of progress IP.

This fact (and understanding of its role) served as the basis for the introduction (for our group) to statistical monitor such a region as “All countries except mainland China”. As it was shown in the previous statistical monitor, coronavirus pandemic for such a “region”, in contrast to the global pandemic, has already developed according to the classical canons, as an independent object (the outbreak).

Thirdly, the analysis of the case fatality rates’ nature, that we carried out and published in the very beginning of our activity (see list of publications on case fatality rates at the end of the monitor), showed that significant fluctuations of their values in the early stages of the outbreaks are smoothed over large periods of time and when considering the composite epidemics, i.e. epidemics, consisting of many local, separated in time. It also was one of the reasons for the “smoothness” of these indicators’ trajectories.

As can be seen on Fig. 11, the fatality rate in the world is in a fairly wide range (of 6.60% to 14.57%) and is characterized by rather high values.

Fig. 12–13 for a global pandemic are similar to the graphs of Fig. 7–8 for the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine, which indicates that globally, pandemic has not yet been curbed. Taking into account the above remark about the pandemic as a composite phenomenon, this means that its development is dictated by those countries that don’t sufficiently curb the spread of coronavirus.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together , China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Fig. 3 shows the “average”.

Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values ​​of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

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Source of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine