Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 15, 2020.
Each and every country showed a positive trend of progress over the past day (fig. 1–4).
In China, the level of progress indicator has risen slightly (99.89% vs 99.88%). The value of the case fatality rate I(TC) hasn’t changed (5,59%) and value of the case fatality rate I(CC) has decreased from 5,60% to 5.59% (Fig. 1, 11).
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world, that we are monitoring, are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day Japan surpassed Italy, and Ukraine — the United States of America. The ranking of other countries hasn’t changed.
Fig. 6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Fig. 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until the present time.
As regards the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine the following should be noted:
The graphs (trends) look positive in the diagrams Fig. 6, 9 and 10. Indeed (see Fig. 6), the case fatality rate I(TC) almost doesn’t increase, the case fatality rate I(CC) is continuously reduced, approaching the values of the rate I(TC). This positive trend surely reflects the dynamics of the indicator of progress IP.
The graph of Fig. 7, characterizing the dynamics of the new cases’ daily growth, shows that the peak of this index in Ukraine still hasn’t yet matured. This means that the outbreak development in our country may be delayed, and this will result in more victims among the population. Let’s recall that the main factors influencing the value of this indicator are the number of tests that are carried out, the conditions of quarantine, the compliance with quarantine’s conditions by citizens, monitoring the compliance with quarantine’s conditions by state executives. Diagram Fig. 7 reflects the combined effect of these (and other) factors and isn’t promising so far.
The rising trend in numbers of deaths still disappointing (Fig. 8).
The trend in the number of recovered and active cases in Ukraine to date (Fig. 9, 10) remains positive.
In this issue we publish diagrams for coronavirus outbreak in China, analogues to diagrams 6–10 on Ukraine, which is far ahead of all other countries in the world as regards the level of progress. The aim of such diagrams is to provide a possibility to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and other countries of the world.
Based on the analysis of Fig. 11–15, characterizing COVID-19 outbreak in China, the following should be noted:
China had to revise statistics at some point in time, as reflected in the statistical series of the outbreak’s main indicators in the form of strong spikes and shifts. Therefore, for illustrative purposes, all curves, shown in the graphs, are presented (where it is necessary) in two options. The first option (option (a)) reflects the data of the official statistics as they are. On second (option (b)), the peak is eliminated, which significantly distorts the overscale displaying data for other calendar periods.
Let’s note one more circumstance. The data for China came relatively late in international systems for monitoring the spread of infection. Our monitoring began even later. In this regard, the initial period of the outbreak, which has different nuances, dropped out of sight of ordinary observers and is not recorded in the above diagrams.
It is important to note that Chinese government has repeatedly been accused in the world’s media of statistical distortion. Nevertheless, we consider it useful to publish such diagrams as objects of comparison of outbreaks in different countries.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together , China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
The forecast for the outbreaks’ completion dates is calculated using a linear trend, determined by statistical data for the last decade of the observation period.
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Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088