Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
22.05.2020. No 64.
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 21, 2020
Most of the countries we’ve been monitoring, with the exception of Spain (growth of reported deaths (plus) and the cumulative reported recovered (minus) slowed down, resulting in slowed growth of cumulative reported closed cases) and China (the outbreak in this country has suspended in its development), over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).
In China, the values of all indicators considered in our statistical monitors haven’t changed: the progress indicator IP is 99,90%, case fatality rates I(TC) and I (CC) — 5,59% (Fig. 1).
The outbreak of coronavirus in South Korea continues its movement towards completion. For the past day, the value of the progress indicator in the country increased to 93,50% vs 92.97%. Germany is a little behind South Korea (progress indicator in this country has reached 92,90%).
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day, there have been considerable change. Israel pushed Iran from the fourth position. Japan surpassed Turkey. The outbreak in Brazil surpassed the pandemic in all countries of the world as to the level of the progress indicator in general. Russia surpassed the United States.
Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.
Daily indicators of coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine fluctuate strongly, without giving serious grounds for optimism. No serious reasons for optimism and seeing the naked eye and confirmed by statistics, the level Also, low level of compliance with quarantine in the country, which is seeing with the unaided eye and confirmed by statistics, isn’t encouraging.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together ,
China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
Source of statistics:
Our initiative group and mission:
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress: