Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical monitor
06.06.2020. No 79.

We continue to publish daily releases of the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 5, 2020.

Due to the fact that the outbreak in France is of great interest to us as analysts and forecasters, we have updated our database in accordance with changes in the international system to monitor the spread of coronavirus, and returned this country to our monitors.

Over the past day Brazil, Iran, Israel, China and South Korea didn’t show a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–3). In this case Israel and South Korea can serve as examples of what harm the release from quarantine can do.

In China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator remained unchanged again holding steady at 5,58%, 5,59% and 99,92% correspondingly.

The coronavirus outbreak in Germany took another step towards completion. The value of progress indicator in the country has increased to 95,60% vs 95,46% as of June 4th, 2020.
There is a progress in the coronavirus outbreak in Japan. The value of progress indicator over the past day has changed and reached 93,06% vs 92,67%.

Overall rating of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in Fig. 4. During the past the ranking of the countries remained unchanged.

Fig.5 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP, that we propose, for the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine. As regards these indicators the outbreak’s trend in Ukraine is quite favorable. Unfortunately, the real situation is worse.

Fig. 6–9 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

Unwillingness and/or inability of all participants of this process to effectively prevent the spread of infection is more disappointing then predictable growth in the cumulative reported cases (see Fig. 6) within the framework of the government’s “strategy of containment” of the coronavirus As a result, the number of new cases in recent days has reached the record level, which, in turn, provoked increase in the current cases number (active cases) as well, Fig. 9.

In this regard, let’s remind once again that the only effective tool to curb the COVID-19 outbreak is quarantine measures and respect by each citizen of the personal safety measures. The consequences of ignoring these measures are well known and have been repeatedly noted in our publications.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

The case fatality rates, widely used in medical statistics, unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764