Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
18/09/2020. S-No 158.
As of September 17, 2020, negative trends of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic development persist (see Fig. 1–4). The UN Secretary General finally voiced what we regularly write about in our monitors: “The outbreak remains out of control” (https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/09/1072522).
In the group of leaders in the rating of short-term changes over the past three days, the top positions occupied South Korea, Brazil, Japan and the USA (Fig. 5). In all these countries, with a relatively stable, but still relatively high, increase in the number of infected, there was a higher increase in those who recovered, which contributed to an increase in the progress indicator. South Korea has also managed to reduce the growth of new infections, which indicates a higher quality of such growth.
The outsiders of this ranking (France, Israel and Italy) still admit a large number of new infections, which ensures them firmly holding their outsider positions.
Over the past three days, Ukraine has left the group of outsiders in the rating of short-term changes solely due to some compensation for the huge number of new cases by the number of recovered, which, however, does not in the least prevent a further drop in the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 4).
All the changes noted above, local in time, general picture (Fig. 6) are still unable to qualitative change.
The same leaders in the overall rating, all the same outsiders, all the same trends in the dynamics of the progress level indicator (Fig. 1–4).
The UN Secretary General is also right, recognizing the inability of governments and the population of most countries in the world to resist the coronavirus. Therefore, we will have to put up not only with the prevailing, apparently for a long time, epidemiological situation in the country and in the world, which the Minister of Health of Ukraine calls for every day, but also with the inability of governments to solve problems of this level.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken and a number of individual countries.
Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases where there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
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Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: