Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

06/07/2020. No 109.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/159291105713793

Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 05, 2020.

June 5, 2020 can be safely called a black day in the pandemic calendar. France is temporarily excluded from our monitors due to the cessation of the submission of statistical data to international systems for monitoring the spread of coronavirus.

For this day, the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in most of the countries we monitor, namely Brazil, Israel, Italy, China, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea and Japan, as well as the pandemic in the world except China and the pandemic in the world as a whole positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) have not changed (5.55% and 5.57%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator has also remained unchanged (99.52%).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.60%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.01% (4.76%), and the progress indicator IP) rose to 96.57% against 96.44% for the previous reporting day. These changes are due to a decrease in the number of new infections (140 people) against the background of a consistently high level of convalesces (400 people).

In Italy, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) decreased by 0.01% (14.43% and 15.36%, respectively). In the first case, this is a negative trend, and in the second, it is a positive one (see explanations below regarding the patterns of behavior of mortality rates). As a result, the value of the IP progress indicator has not changed (93.94%).

The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. For reporting, South Korea climbed a notch, pushing Japan away.

Today in fig. 5–9 are diagrams characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main (mainly daily) indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and Israel.

Israel was vis-à-vis Ukraine just a few days ago. We deliberately cite the diagrams of this country again to demonstrate to our reader how the containment of the epidemic can fail if such a task is set. It is clear that this problem can be solved also due to the inability to contain the epidemic, but this has nothing to do with Israel. This country once showed an example of a quick and effective curbing of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19.

As is known from the media, and also can be seen from the diagrams that show the trends in the main indicators of the development of the coronavirus epidemic in this country, Israel has begun to quickly and broadly reduce quarantine. It is completely obvious to us that this step was taken deliberately and relied on a sober and, as was noted in the framework of the dissenting opinion above, in a certain sense immoral calculation: with a low level of deaths, the predominance of mild forms of the disease, it is economically and socially more profitable to provide the necessary medical care more patients than to restrain the economy and limit the social rights of citizens.

The significant similarity of the trends in the development of epidemics in Ukraine and in Israel during the second wave suggests that such a choice was made in Ukraine, in a country that does not have either administrative (intellectual) or material potential to effectively contain such epidemics.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on mortality and progress indicators:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine