Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
21/08/2020. S-No 144.
Today is exactly 5 months from the date of our first publication on these pages of forecasting COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic problem. At that distant time, we naively believed that in three to four months, (this is how much time it took for China to practically stop the spread of coronavirus in the country), and we will be able to calmly sum up the scientific results of practical forecasting.
Despite the fact that over the past time we have achieved a high accuracy of our forecasts, this one has not stood the test of time. Five months later, the pandemic is still gaining momentum, and fatigue is fell among populations and governments bordering on incapacity.
The latter, fortunately, did not affect the members of our working group, which continues to share its views and developments on this topical problem.
At August 20, 2020 with two days that have passed since our previous monitor dedicated to the coronavirus pandemic, the nature of the epidemic in the countries we tracked, as well as the pandemic in the world as a whole, can be characterized as an attempt to revenge the coronavirus in the fight for human lives (see fig. 1–3).
Noteworthy is the failure of South Korea (Fig. 2), which has already seen significant daily increases in the number of infected people by the standards of this country (about 300 people on average per day in the last two days).
In Japan (see Fig. 3), patients are actively recovering (up to 1300 people per day over the last week). This number is commensurate with the average number of new infections (more than 1,050 people on average per day during the last week). Due to this ratio, Japan demonstrates an increase in the value of the progress indicator in the face of a frankly bad epidemiological situation in the country.
Israel acts in the same spirit (Fig. 3), in which, moreover, the total number of the dead gallops. Moreover, this despite the fact that for more than 3 months the number of deaths in Israel has practically not changed.
The diagram in Fig. 4.
In this rating presented the current leaders (Brazil, the USA and the Russian Federation) demonstrate an increase in the values of the progress indicator, like Japan, due to some advance in the number of recovered over the number of new infections, with a high level of the latter.
This suggests that the leaders noted above are not at all leaders in curbing the coronavirus.
What can we say about the outsiders of this rating (South Korea, France, Ukraine, Germany), which demonstrate the growth of new infections at the worst periods level of the life cycle of epidemics in these countries. The only exception is Germany, which is still far from its anti-record set in the past (fig. 5).
Looking at all these diagrams, one gets the impression that the governments of these and other countries showing similar trends have come to terms with the current situation and are no longer going to apply proven effective anti-coronavirus measures. The voices of those, including the World Health Organization, who believe that “the sheepskin is not worth the candle” or, more simply, taming the coronavirus (read, the fight for the health and lives of citizens) is too expensive for both the economy and the reputation of governments …
Well, this is the choice of these governments, this is the choice of the citizens themselves of their governments, and these citizens live with such a choice, with such governments and with the coronavirus as it is. Among all this fraternity, the coronavirus is the most consistent and uncompromising.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using exclusively to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: