Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, O.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical monitor
06/02/2020 No 75.
(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/147098106933093)
We continue to publish the index of progress IP of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in the world and a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 1, 2020.
Like yesterday, all the same countries have not shown positive dynamics of progress over the past day (Fig. 1–4). These are Brazil, Israel, Iran, Spain, China, France and South Korea. This is the result of either neglecting the risk of coronavirus infection (Brazil) or the difficulty of getting out of quarantine (Israel, Spain, France, South Korea). The latter circumstance is especially relevant given the course of the Ukrainian government to reduce quarantine in the country.
In China, the values of fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) have not changed and as of June 1, 2020 remained at 5.58% and 5.59%, respectively. The value of the progress indicator IP decreased to the level of 99.91% against 99.92%.
The coronavirus epidemic in Germany has taken a small step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country has risen to 94.97% from 94.72%.
The ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world as a whole is shown in the diagram in Fig. 5. Over the past day, France has fallen to one position, skipping forward the pandemic in the world as a whole. The ranking of other countries has not changed.
Diagram 6 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and the progress indicator IP we proposed. The diagrams in Fig. 7–10 show the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in Ukraine to date.
Starting from this issue, we present the diagram characterizing the dynamics of the values of the indicator of the total number of infected people in Ukraine in two forms: in the form of a linear diagram and in the form of a histogram. This is due to the fact that among forecasters there are different opinions about the beginning of the formation of the peak values of this indicator and different forecasts in this regard. We will return to the discussion of this question in the meantime, and for the time being we will monitor this situation through the prism of diagrams of two types, which together give a more complete picture of this question.
As follows from the presented graphs (see, in particular, Fig. 7), Ukraine is still worried about the delay in the formation of a peak in the daily increase in the number of infected people, which indicates the presence of certain problems in containing the spread of coronavirus. The values of the total number of recovered and current patients do not inspire optimism and dynamics these days.
In this issue, we publish diagrams similar to charts 6–10 in Ukraine for the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in the United States. In this country, the epidemic has reached gigantic proportions, and the government is clearly not able to curb its element. This is confirmed by the graphs in Fig.11–15. Despite the fact that these graphs clearly show positive trends, but the pace of positive change and the scale of the tragedy can not leave indifferent any citizen and, moreover, the researcher.
Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the progress indicator IP for all countries of the world, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries. Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the epidemic progress index IP and spacing them into different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both WHO fatality rates should be equal.
Fatality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.
Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088