Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Statistical Monitor
23/06/2020. No 96.
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154999872809583
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 22, 2020.
Over the past reporting day, epidemics in Brazil, Germany, Israel, China, the USA, Ukraine, South Korea, and Japan did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).
In these countries, with the exception of Ukraine, in which the epidemic was not initially taking under effective control. The main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the weakening phase of the quarantine regime. Such a long period of regression clearly indicates that the transition to weakening quarantine is a difficult to manage process, which should be taking into account by the governments of all countries that are deciding or preparing to solve this problem.
The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.56% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and dropped to 99.58% (99.60% a day earlier).
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased again (4.67% versus 4.68%), which was the result of a significant number of new infections), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.87%), and the value IP progress indicator continued to fall (95.91% versus 95.97% days earlier).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan took another step back in its development. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased by 0.23% to 95.37%. The mortality rate I (TC) value decreased to 5.32% (the day before it was 5.32%), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.58% versus 5.59%). This was the result of a relatively large daily increase in the number of infected and a small number of recovered over the past reporting day.
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in it has not changed.
In the diagrams of Fig. Figures 5–9 show the main daily indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine as of today (June 23, 2020).
The statistics of the epidemic in Ukraine continues to live strictly according to the schedule of weekdays and weekends (see, for example, regular local minimums (dips) of values on weekends in Fig. 6b), giving the growth of cumulative indicators a respite from the weekend, and then allowing them with new energy regular growth. Such strict adherence to a certain law could be welcome if it were not for the obvious negative trends in the development of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine, which are a natural consequence of the ineffective management of the process of containing the spread of infection.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088