Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, O.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical Monitor
05/27/2020. No 69.
(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144800263829544)
We continue to publish the index of progress of the IP of the coronavirus epidemic COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 26, 2020.
Important notice.
Yesterday, we once again drew your attention to the adjustment of data in various systems for monitoring of the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 in hindsight. As you know, the Spanish government updated the data on the causes of death and significantly reduced (again, retroactively) the number of fatal cases from the coronavirus COVID-19 in the country. At the same time, these changes were ignored in the Wolrdometers monitoring system. Other organizations and researchers sometimes do this. And this position has its own logic. Based on the data of Wolrdometers in our studies, we will also adhere to this position, while continuing to use the data of this international organization.
Most of the countries we track, with the exception of Brazil and Spain, have shown positive progress over the past 24 hours (Figure 1–4). This fact is not surprising when you analyze the reports of world media about ignoring the danger of coronavirus in Brazil by the first persons of the state, and after them, by ordinary citizens, as well as the efforts of the Spanish government to ease quarantine.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP have not changed and, as of May 26, 2020, are 5.58%, 5.59%, and 99.90%, respectively (see Fig. 1- 4, 5).
The coronavirus epidemic in South Korea has taken another step forward. Over the past day, the value of the progress indicator in this country decreased to the level of 93.93% against 93.64%. Germany also advanced with a current progress indicator of 94.05% versus 93.92% on April 25, 2020.
According to the results of the past days, in our ranking, Japan is ahead of Israel, and Turkey is ahead of Spain. These countries have switched places in the ranking. The location of other countries in the ranking has not changed (Fig. 5).
A note on the basics of working with data.
The usefulness of such comments is due to the fact that, as you know, our students (probably not all) are watching our monitors. Some basic points (considerations) may be useful for our other readers. It is also useful for the researchers themselves to rethink their ideas about such things from time to time.
One of the most basic levels (methods) of processing statistical data is their visualization. One of the techniques for visualizing statistical series of observations is their presentation in the form of diagrams. As you know, there are a large number of types of diagrams. Each of them allows you to display a statistical series in its own way. Thus, different visual representations of the same data generally carry different information about this data and can be useful for data analysis. We also resorted to this technique in this issue of the statistical monitor. We will indicate the reasons for this below.
Diagram 6 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both mortality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and the IP progress indicator we proposed. The diagrams of Fig 7–10 show the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in Ukraine to date.
In Ukraine, the trends of previous days are mainly preserved. At the same time, in fig. 7, a tendency to slowly form a peak in the daily increase in the number of infected people begins to be seen. The formation of this trend can undoubtedly be prevented by measures to weaken the quarantine, but only time will show how such a relaxation will actually affect the formation of this trend.
In this issue, we publish diagrams similar to charts 6–10 for Ukraine on the coronavirus pandemic in the world as a whole (see Fig. 11–15). WHO is concerned about global pandemic trends, and these disturbances are confirmed by the graphs we presented (see, in particular, Fig. 12).
As you noticed, the graphs in fig. 7 and fig. 12 in this issue are plotted as bar graphs. And this is no coincidence. In our forecast releases, we regularly quantify the accuracy of our forecasts. This is our know-how and our competitive advantage as publicists in comparison with many other forecasters, whose forecasts are presented to the world community in one form or another.
We quickly discovered one original source of errors in our forecasts. It could be classified as funny, but we, as the compilers of the forecasts, were clearly not up to humor. If you look at fig. 7 and fig. 12, you can pay attention to the regular local minima of the total number of infected. This pattern is also visible on the graph of other key indicators of the development of epidemics in different countries and regions of the world. It turned out that these local minima occur on weekends, in which statistical services also “relax”, in contrast to the coronavirus, which does not pay attention to the red days of the calendar. This phenomenon was noted by us both in our issues and in the world press. In connection with this, forecasters are faced with the problem of the extent to which this phenomenon should be taken into account in their models. Each solves this problem in his own way, and each in his own right.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries. Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “middling” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the epidemic progress IP index and spacing them into different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both WHO mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.
Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088