Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, O.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical Monitor
06/03/2020. No 76.
(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/147497353559835)
We continue to publish a daily summary of progress indicators IP of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 2, 2020.
However, before proceeding to the analysis of progress indices, we note the changes that have occurred in our statistical monitor.
1. Spain is excluded from the rating due to the lack of new data on the state of the epidemic in this country in world monitoring systems. This serves as the basis for the exclusion of Spain from the forecast monitors due to the impossibility of making forecasts in such conditions.
2. The coronavirus pandemic in the world as a whole is also excluded from the rating. This decision is due to the following reasons. The pandemic indicators are almost identical to the pandemic indicators in the world with the exception of mainland China, which is also the subject of our monitoring, due to the fact that (a) the statistics of China remain practically unchanged for many days; (b) China’s contribution to global statistics, given the magnitude of the global pandemic, has become insignificant.
3. The group of “outsiders” was excluded from the monitor due to the transition of the respective countries to the group of “average”.
Like all recent days, many countries over the past day have not shown positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). These countries include Israel, Iran, Spain, China and South Korea. This is largely the result of the difficulty of quarantine exit. The latter circumstance is especially relevant in view of the transition of the Ukrainian government to a “strategy” of COVID-19 incidence containment (https://censor.net.ua/news/3197898/ukraina_pereshla_ot_strategii_snijeniya_k_strategii_sderjivaniya_zabolevaemosti_covid19_lyashko). In one of the next issues, we will translate the language that is understandable to ordinary citizens, what does this mean for them in terms of modeling and predicting the development of epidemics of coronavirus.
In China, the fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP have not changed and, as of June 1, 2020, remained at 5.58%, 5.59%, and 99.91%, respectively.
The coronavirus epidemic in Germany has taken another small step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to 95.10% against 94.97%.
The ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in the ranking has not changed.
Diagram 5 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and the IP progress indicator we proposed. The diagrams in Fig. 6–9 show the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in Ukraine to date.
As follows from the graphs in Fig. 6 in Ukraine, the peak (https://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ushakov/936350) of the daily increase in the number of patients (infected) can already be forgotten. The country has long reached the plateau (from the second half of April) (https://gufo.me/dict/ozhegov/%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE), and according to the trends, fixed by statistics today, the borders of this plateau are not visible. Against this background, the dynamics of the values of other daily indicators of the epidemic in Ukraine (see. Fig. 7–9) looks more optimistic.
As usual, for comparison, we publish similar charts on the epidemics of the coronavirus COVID-19 in other countries. This issue presents daily growth charts of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Japan (see Fig. 10–14).
As you can see, all the graphs are of classic types for the development of epidemics, indicating a relatively high level of control over the development of the epidemic by the state, a high level of medical care for patients and the presence of some difficulties at the quarantine exit stage. We have no doubt that in order to give such charts a classic type, a strong and effective government, a powerful economy and law-abiding population (rule of law) are needed.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the progress indicator IP for all countries of the world, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries. Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the epidemic progress index IP and spacing them into different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both WHO fatality rates should be equal.
Fatality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.
Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088