Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readJun 26, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

25/06/2020. No 98.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/155830016059902

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 24, 2020.

Over the past reporting day, only the epidemics in Israel, China and South Korea did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, the main causes of the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.

The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased to 5.55% (it was 5.56% a day ago), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (5.58%), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and fell to the level of 99.56% (99.57% days earlier).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.66%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased and reached the level of 4.86% against 4.87% a day earlier, the value of the IP progress indicator increased (95.89 % versus 95.80%). This was the result of a large number of people recovering per day against the background of a fairly large number of new infections.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to 95.57% against 95.54% in the last reporting day. The mortality rate I (TC) increased (5.34% versus 5.32%), the mortality rate I (CC) also increased (5.59% versus 5.56%).

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.

Over the past day, Ukraine has moved to last place among the countries tracked in our monitors.

Today in the diagrams fig. 5–9, the basic daily indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine are again presented.

An analysis of these diagrams indicates that the coronavirus knows its “job” well, collecting the crop that the authorities and citizens of Ukraine allow it to. And the reports “from the fields” are more and more impressive, at least, for us researchers and analysts of the spread of infection.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)