Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
17/06/2020. No 90.
Today we publish a daily summary status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 16, 2020.
Over the past day, epidemics in Brazil, Israel, China, Turkey, Ukraine, South Korea, and Japan did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In most of these countries, the main reasons are related to the difficulties of going through the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) have not changed (5.57% and 5.58%, respectively). However, the value of the IP progress indicator decreased again, reaching 99.75% versus 99.79%, which was the result of a significant number of new infections.
The coronavirus epidemic in Germany continues to advance to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 96.62% against 96.51% in the previous day. This was again achieved due to the excess of the number of recovered over a relatively large number of new cases in recent days. Thus, in Germany, the relaxation of quarantine negatively affects the total number of infected.
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.
It has been happening in the past few days, Brazil has once again swapped places with Russia, letting this country go forward. Over the past day, the location of other countries in the ranking has not changed.
Diagrams fig. 5–9 which day reflect a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation in Ukraine, the causes of which, as well as the most likely consequences of this, we have repeatedly noted in our monitors.
Now we will repeat only one elementary truth: the only mechanism to contain the epidemic of coronavirus in the near future is quarantine, and not on paper, but in action.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to sufficiently informatively reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
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Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators