Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical monitor
08.06.2020. No 81.

We continue to publish daily releases of the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 07, 2020.

The last day has demonstrated again that the release from quarantine was no less difficult than to curb the COVID-19 outbreak in a phase of active development. This is especially important to remember those who without having resolved the first task, move on to the second one.

Over the past day the outbreaks in many countries didn’t show a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–3). Among the countries are Brazil, Iran, Israel, China and South Korea. These countries are from the list of countries and regions of the world and the objects of our group’s monitoring.

In China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator remained unchanged for the several days in a row and are at 5,58%, 5,59% and 99,92% correspondingly.

The coronavirus outbreak in Germany took another small step towards completion. The value of progress indicator in the country has increased to 95,70% vs 95,60% as of June 6th, 2020.
There is a slight progress in the coronavirus outbreak in Japan. The value of progress indicator over the past day has changed and reached 93,66% vs 93,51%.

Overall rating of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in Fig. 4.

During the past day, Russia has surpassed Brazil, pushing this country with a specific attitude to the coronavirus and the problem in general, one position down.

Fig.5 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP, that we propose, for the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine. As regards these indicators the outbreak’s trend in Ukraine is rather classic. However, a more detailed analysis reveals negative aspects specific to coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine.

Fig. 6–9 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

Statistics presented on the graphs is disappointing, no matter what anyone says and/or write on the subject. Possible causes of some deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the country, we’ve pointed out numerously and would not need to repeat in today’s monitor.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

The case fatality rates, widely used in medical statistics, unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764