Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Statistical Monitor
20/06/2020. No 93.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 19, 2020.
Over the past reporting day, epidemics in Brazil, Germany, Israel, China and South Korea did not show positive progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, with the exception of Brazil, the main causes of the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with difficulties in going through the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.
In China, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (5.56% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and reached 99.65% (99.68% a day earlier).
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased (4.70% against 4.71%), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.89%), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to fall (95.17% against 96.28% days earlier).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step forward towards the final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 95.51% against 95.46% in the previous day. The mortality rate I (TC) decreased to 5.27% (the day before it was 5.29%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.02%, reaching 5.52%,
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.
Italy surpassed one of the permanent leaders in our ranking — South Korea and took 4th place. Brazil sank to third position from below. Russia has risen two steps up, bypassing the world pandemic with the exception of mainland China and Brazil. This jump is due to a significant increase in the number of people recovered against the background of unfavorable values of other indicators of the epidemic.
Today, in addition to rating charts (Fig. 1–4) in the charts of Fig. 5–9 presents the pandemic in the world. These charts provide an indication of how all countries in the world are generally struggling with the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. To summarize briefly, they fight poorly.
All major pandemic indicators (see Figure 6–9) show a rising trend. It is clear that the “leaders” in the level of epidemic uncontrollability, such as the USA, Brazil, Russia and many other countries of the world, set the tone in this.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informational reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088