Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor
06/11/2020. No 84.

We continue to publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators for the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, as of official statistics as of June 11, 2020.

Over the past day of the epidemic, only Israel, China and the United States (among the countries that appear in our monitors) have not shown positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In Israel, since the quarantine weakened, there has been a significant increase in new infections. In China, the values ​​of all indices are in the saturation zone, and therefore their changes are very small. The United States still cannot take control of the spread of infection.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator for the past reporting day have not changed and are respectively 5.58%, 5.58% and 99.93%.

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany continues to move to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country rose to the level of 96.39% against 96.08% in the previous reporting day. This country confidently takes the second position in our ranking (see below).

One of Japan’s leaders has also advanced. The value of the progress indicator per day increased and reached the level of 94.28% against 94.01%.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past reporting day, Brazil once again swapped places with Russia, having risen one position. Iran bypassed Israel. The location of other countries in the ranking has not changed.

In today’s statistical monitor in fig. 5–9, charts are combined that illustrate the dynamics of the main daily indicators of the epidemic in Ukraine and Germany, the country that takes third place in our rating.

Comparing these graphs, I recall the good old expression “Two worlds — two lifestyles.” The dynamics of daily epidemic indicators in Germany has a classic epidemic type, which is confidently taken under effective control. Charts of similar indicators for Ukraine show the opposite picture.

The diagram of fig. 10, which displays the dynamics of the values ​​of the progress indicator for Ukraine and Germany in a logarithmic scale. As you know, this technique is very effective for determining time lags in the development of similar processes. An analysis of these graphs shows that Ukraine took 74 days to reach the current (as of June 11, 2020) level of progress in the development of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 from the common reference point (the same level of infections), while Germany took only 38 days. Thus , the development of the epidemic In Ukraine, is currently almost twice slower as in Germany, and this gap is growing over time.

Such situation is not surprising at all and characterize many other spheres of our state life in comparison with world leaders. In the case of the coronavirus epidemic, the payment for such a leisurely development of events is obvious and has been repeatedly indicated in our monitors.
___

Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.

The terms “leaders” and “averages” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values ​​of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates that are widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently and informatively reflecting of the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials are also available:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764