Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
30/06/2020. No 103.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 29, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Germany, Israel, China, Turkey, Ukraine, France, and Japan did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).
In these countries, with the exception of Turkey and Ukraine, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day showed the following indicators of the development of epidemics.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator have not changed (5.55%, 5.58%, 99.50%, respectively).
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.63%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased (4.83% versus 4.84%), the value of the IP progress indicator also decreased (95.78% versus 95.83%). This was the result of the excess of the number of new cases of infection over the number of closed cases (recovered and dead).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to the level of 94.87% against 95.03% in the previous reporting day. The mortality rate I (TC) decreased and reached the level of 5.26% (against 5.28%), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.55% against 5.56%). As in Germany, this dynamics of these indicators was due to the excess of the number of new infections over the number of closed cases.
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.
During the reporting day, the epidemic in Russia bypassed the epidemic in France. In France, in recent days there has been a surge in new infections.
Today in the diagrams fig. 5–9 are charts characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and France.
The dynamics of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in France, despite a spike in new infections in recent days, reflects the process of fairly confident control of the epidemic, as evidenced by well-formed peaks of daily values and the subsequent asymptotic approach of their values to zero.
In contrast to this diagram, fig. 6–9 for Ukraine characterizes the inability of participants in the process to subordinate the course of the development of the epidemic of coronavirus COVID-19 to their will. On the other hand, the factor of weekends and holidays continues to operate confidently (see Fig. 6b), which clearly shows how the statistics rest on weekends and holidays together with all the people.
On June 29th, the values of the performed PCR tests, new cases of infection and recovered are significantly lower than on previous working days. This is significantly different from the behavior of the coronavirus, which does not know fatigue and so far quite effectively worsens the statistical indicators in Ukraine.
Such a significant difference in the nature of the development of the situation in Ukraine compared with the development of the epidemiological situation in France is seen in the low effectiveness of the government and the population in preventing the spread of coronavirus, in the inability of a weak economy to withstand the burden of effective quarantine, in the (so far) relatively low epidemic in Ukraine and low mortality rate. The latter seems to be the most dampening factor for all participants in the process of containing the epidemic, which does not contribute to mobilizing all efforts to combat coronavirus.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of completion of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: