Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical monitor №80

We continue to publish daily releases of the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 06, 2020.

Over the past day Israel, China, France and South Korea didn’t show a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–3). The easing of the quarantine is accompanied by the increase of new cases in all these countries.

In China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator remained unchanged and make up 5,58%, 5,59% and 99,92% correspondingly.

The coronavirus outbreak in Germany took another step towards completion. The value of progress indicator in the country has increased to 95,68% vs 95,60% as of June 5th, 2020.
There is a progress in the coronavirus outbreak in Japan. The value of progress indicator over the past day has changed and reached 93,51% vs 93,06%.

Overall rating of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in Fig. 4. During the past day the ranking of the countries remained unchanged.

Fig.5 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP, that we propose, for the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine. As regards these indicators the outbreak’s trend in Ukraine is rather classic. However, a more detailed analysis reveals specific negative aspects of coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine.

Fig. 6–9 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

Statistics still records general trend towards accelerated growth in the cumulative reported cases due to the consistently high level of increase in the number of cases (see Fig. 6).
The declining in the values of daily number of deaths (Fig. 8) has stopped. There is an increasing number of active cases (Fig. 9). All this is obvious consequences of the easing of quarantine measures. As it was already noted, lengthening the life cycle of the outbreak, a higher cumulative reported cases, deaths, and active cases (current cases), a longer period of staying in the dangerous conditions for risk population during the outbreak and, therefore, the risk of disease will be long-term consequences.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

The case fatality rates, widely used in medical statistics, unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764