Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical monitor
21.05.2020. No 63.
(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142427984066772)
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 19, 2020.
Starting with this release, the Netherlands has been excluded from the list of countries being monitored in our statistical monitors, as this country doesn’t provide information on indicators of recovered and active cases, which precludes of a progress IP calculation. Instead, Brazil was added to the monitor.
Meanwhile, likely it’s temporarily, the observation period is reduced due to the technical reasons, which excludes the initial period.
Many countries we’ve been monitoring, with the exception of Iran, where the outbreak moved again backwards in its development, as well as China and Japan, where the outbreak has suspended, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1).
In China, the values of all indicators considered in our statistical monitors haven’t changed: the progress indicator IP is 99,90%, case fatality rates I(TC) and I (CC) — 5,59% (Fig. 1–4).
The outbreak of coronavirus in South Korea continues its movement towards completion. For the past day, the value of the progress indicator in the country increased to 92.97% vs 92,08%. Germany (progress indicator in this country has reached 92,52%) is not far behind South Korea.
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day South Korea regained the second position, having pushed Germany one step below. Brazil took place in the group of “average”. The ranking of other countries and regions of the world hasn’t changed.
Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.
In this issue we publish diagrams for coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, analogues to diagrams Fig. 6–10 on Ukraine. The aim of such diagrams is to provide a possibility to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and other countries and regions of the world.
Fig. 11–15 describe the main indicators of COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. As can be seen from these graphs, the outbreak in this country belongs to the category of relatively young, despite the relatively high level of progress (46%), and rapidly developing outbreak. These trends are very unfavorable, which is the case for the outbreaks that aren’t brought under strict control.
The relatively high fatality level (Fig. 11), which today is in the range of 6.44% to 13.94%, is worthy to note. In this case the trajectory values of both fatality rates I(TC) I and I(CC) run parallel instead of trend towards convergence.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
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Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088