Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
14/07/2020. No 117.
Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 13, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Brazil, Israel, Russia, South Korea, and Japan, as well as the pandemic in the world with the exception of China and the pandemic in the world as a whole, did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).
The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics in their countries.
In China, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (5.54%), the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased (5.56% versus 5.57%, a positive shift), the value of the IP progress indicator has increased by 0.01 % (99.62%), due to the excess of the number of people who recovered (14 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (8 people).
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased by 0.01% (4.56%, a negative shift), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.71%), the value of the IP progress indicator increased (96.91 % versus 96.89%). This was the result of the excess of the number of recovered (500 people) over the number of new infections (486 people).
In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed; the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased by 0.01% (15.20%, positive). The value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.01% (94.59%), due to a slight excess of the number of recovered (178 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (169 people).
The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4. For the reporting day, the location of countries in the ranking has not changed.
The diagrams in Fig. 5–11 characterize the dynamics of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine.
Diagram Fig. 5 still shows negative trends in the indicators of the total number of infected (TC) and dead (D), a positive upward trend in the number of convalesced (R) and some stabilization in the number of active cases (AC).
In the last days, changes in the daily indicators of the epidemic, such as the number of new infections (Fig. 8), recovered (Fig. 10), and active patients (Fig. 11), are positive. There are signs of stabilization in the number of deaths (Fig. 9).
The dynamics noted above have been responding to by the dynamics of the IP progress indicator by the growth of their knowledge in recent days (Fig. 6). At the same time, the trends in mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) are practically unchanged.
The dynamics of the statistical analogue of the reproductive number R0 (Fig. 6), calculated by us as a modified growth rate of the daily number of new infected using the autocorrelation function, fluctuates around 1.00, which indicates that there is no change in the negative growth trend of the epidemic in terms of the total number of infected ( fig. 5).
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: