France: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
03/10/2020. S-No 164.
Today we will look at a statistical picture of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, which has recently demonstrated a record rate of coronavirus spread, against which the first wave of the epidemic in this country fades.
The diagram in Fig. 1 shows the trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the epidemic:
- total number of infected (TC);
- total number of deaths (D);
- total number of recovered (R);
Is the number of active cases (current patients) (AC).
As you can see, the total number of infected and active cases is rapidly growing. In contrast to these indicators, the total number of deaths and recoveries continues to change slowly in accordance with previously formed trends.
The lethality index I (TC) naturally decreases (Fig. 2), as the number of infected grows, which is the denominator of this index. The mortality rate for active cases I (CC) declines very slowly, so the numerator (total number of deaths) and the denominator (number of closed cases) also change slowly. The progress indicator is falling rapidly, as its numerator is the rapidly declining case fatality rate I (TC) and the denominator is the case fatality rate I (CC).
As you can see, according to the current value of the progress indicator (IP = 22.04%), France rolled back by the end of March 2020.
Recall that both figures show the cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in France.
Diagrams Fig. 3–5 contain trajectories of indicators characterizing the spread rate of coronavirus. The growth rate of the infected number (Fig. 3) is very high (1.17) and is at the level of April 2020. The statistical reproductive number SR0, which is the growth rate of the daily rate of new infections, is also very high (1.23). Only at values of these indicators less than 1 does the process of attenuation of the epidemic begin. The absolute average increase in the number of infected (Fig. 5), being an absolute indicator, complements the previous relative indicators, characterizing the scale of the epidemic’s growth. As you can see, the level of this indicator has exceeded the level of the peak of the first wave.
The trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the epidemic in France are very eloquent (Fig. 6–9).
The second wave of the infection spread almost doubled the first (Fig. 6). Despite this, the daily death rate increased only slightly. This is clearly associated with a change in the age structure of new infections. In Western countries, which demonstrated a huge number of deaths in the initial period of the epidemic, the highly mobile (before the epidemic) elderly population made the main contribution of this indicator. Now it strictly adheres to quarantine restrictions, in connection with which a low component dominates in the overall mortality rate, which is characteristic of younger infected.
The daily growth rate of recovered people in France is growing slowly relative (Fig. 8), which leads to a high growth rate in the number of active cases (Fig. 9). Taking into account the age structure of new infected, among them only a small part require hospitalization, which does not take into account the diagram in Fig. 9.
Nevertheless, as we did in the previous monitor dedicated to Israel, even with a very low mortality rate of new infections, their huge number leads to a significant increase in the number of deaths in absolute terms. Namely this, and only this, is important if you think about people, not about percentages.
Thus, the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in France is still out of control. The naturally low mortality rate among patients, who in the second phase are predominantly young and middle-aged, probably does not stimulate compliance with quarantine restrictions on the part of the population, their tightening and control over their observance by the authorities. All this can lead to additional human casualties, not to mention a significant lengthening of the life cycle epidemic with all the ensuing consequences for all spheres of society.
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:
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