A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

3 min readNov 22, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

22/11/2020. No F-268.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/202129681429935

The next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from November 23 to 29 (the main short-term forecast) and to December 20, 2020 (an approximate medium-term 4-week forecast) was compiled basis on statistical data available on and inclusive November 22, using a set of models developed by our Working Group.

In the diagrams, the index “i” in the numbers of the figures indicates the data of the interval forecast, the index “c” — the indicators of the consensus forecast. The interval forecast based on the smallest and largest values of the particular forecasts, the consensus forecast is an averaging of the particular forecasts.

The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12 with corresponding indices.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the 28-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the 28-day forecast period.

Fig. 9–12 given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the infected, the mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), as well as the progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- estimated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

Taking into account that the past forecast week did not demonstrate the presence of any visible changes in the trends of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine. It expected that the projections assume an equally negative development of the epidemiological situation in the country in the short term, thus confirming that no forecasts determine the reality, and reality (in the event of an epidemic, these are the actions of the authorities and the behavior of the country’s citizens) determine the nature of future forecasts.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)