A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

3 min readNov 8, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

08/11/2020. No F-256.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/196213788688191

The next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from November 9 to 15 (the main short-term forecast) and December 6, 2020 (an approximate medium-term forecast) was compiled basis on the statistical data available on November 8, using a set of models developed by our Working Group.

In this monitor, the “i” index in the figure numbers indicates the interval forecast data, the “c” index indicates the consensus forecast. The first one based on the smallest and largest values of particular forecasts, the second one is an averaging of them.

The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12 with corresponding indices.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Fig 9–12 given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), also an indicator of IP progress) for the entire observation period;

- estimated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

As you know, the past week in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine should safely attributed to the abnormal, replete with values of indicators number of falling out of the general trend. This put forecasting methods in a rather difficult position. As a result, the forecast corridor formed by private forecasts has significantly increased (see Fig. 3i-4i and Fig. 7i-8i). The presence of radical forecasts among private ones, considering such an anomaly as an emerging new trend, significantly radicalized the consensus forecast (see Figs. 7c-8c and Fig. 11c).

This situation presents a certain intrigue, and we will be looking forward to the events of the coming week, which will show what scenario the further development of the epidemic will follow.

Despite significant differences in private forecasts, they are all extremely negative, indicating the uncontrollability of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine and the impending collapse of the country’s health system in the absence of radical measures to counter the spread of infection.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)