A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М4)

4 min readOct 17, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

17/10/2020. No F-237.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin

Today we publish the results of assessing accuracy of the first forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine, developed using the new experimental model M4, which was compiled for a 10-day period from October 8 to October 17, 2020 and published on October 7, 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/187115229598047).

The evaluation results presented in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–13.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for a 10-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error of MAE and the average absolute error in percentage of MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate on an accrual basis, the forecast as a whole.

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

Average absolute percentage errors (MAPE estimates *) for the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are at the following level:

- total number of infected people — 0.33%;

- total number of deaths — 1.31%;

- total number of recovered people — 1.62%;

- number of active cases — 1.78%.

The errors in forecasting the most important derived indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates) are showing in Table. 2:

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.98%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 2.71%;

- IP progress indicator — 1.79%,

Only the error in forecasting the total number of infected has decreased compared to the estimate of the 7-day part of this forecast (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/188950556081181). The accuracy of forecasting other indicators decreased mainly due to the abnormal behavior of the indicator of the total number of recovered. This is easy to verify based on visual assessment in diagrams Fig. 1–13.

In Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

The diagrams in Fig. 9–13 depicts:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (statistical reproductive number, average absolute increase in infected, mortality rate I (TC), lethality rate I (CC), progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

As follows from the diagrams, over the past decade, the daily increments of the deceased (Fig. 6) and the recovered (Fig. 7) significantly deviated from the forecasted ones for the worse. As a result, the number of active cases also slightly exceeded the forecasted level (Fig. 8).

Of the synthetic (derived) indicators, only the IP progress indicator (Fig. 13) visually visibly negatively reacted to such dynamics of the daily increments of the deceased and recovered.

In general, a comparison of the forecast and actual data indicates a deterioration in the dynamics of the number of deaths and recovered people in Ukraine, and the preservation of the existing record trend in the increase in the number of infected. In such conditions, there is no reason to say that the COVID-19 epidemic is somehow under control.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)