A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (M1)
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
17/09/2020. No F-195.
Today we publish another M1 forecast of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development in Ukraine with a 10-day advance for the period from September 18 to September 27, 2020, as well as an approximate forecast for 30 days.
Before proceeding to the presentation of the main parameters of the forecast, let us pay attention to one very remarkable circumstance. To adjust the parameters of the model based on actual data over the past decade (this is how much time has passed since the development of the previous forecast), we only needed to reduce the (average) time from the onset of the disease to the recovery of patients.
In our publications, we have noted that during periods of repeated outbreaks of the coronavirus epidemic in many countries of the world, there is a rapid increase in the number of recovered, which indicates the desire of medical institutions to make room for new patients. This picture observed in Ukraine.
Keeping all other parameters of the model unchanged means that no other components of the epidemic development process over the past decade have influenced (by those who supposed to). This speaks of the level of controllability, or rather uncontrollability, of the course of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine on the part of those who authorized to exert a targeted constructive impact on this process.
The results of forecast calculations based on statistical data for the entire observation period, including data for September 17, 2020, are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as for a lead-time period of 10 days;
- boundaries of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.01).
Diagrams Fig. 5–6 are analogous to the diagrams in Fig. 1–2 and differ from them in that these diagrams show a long-term forecast (with a lead period of 30 days) indicating the actual (at the time of the forecast) and forecast (at the end of the lead period) values of the corresponding indicators. These charts provide a numerical view of the extent of epidemic at the end of the 30-day forecast period, assuming that the trends at the time of forecasting will continue.
The diagrams in Fig. 7–10 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire observation period, as well as for a 10-day forecast period;
- boundaries of the confidence intervals of the 10-day forecast (p = 0.3).
Diagrams Fig. 11–13 reflect:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire observation period, as well as for a forecasting period of 30 days.
As you can see from the diagrams above, the forecast does not imply any changes in the negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine in the near future. It not given any reason to form a different picture of the immediate future of the epidemic. We can only hope that decision-makers will do everything they can to prevent our negative forecast from coming true. At the same time, this will allow once again to evaluate the indicated abilities of these persons.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator