A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (M1)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

07/10/2020. No F-223.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin

Today we present results of assessing our most accurate forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine. This forecast compiled using the model base (M1 model) based on statistical data inclusive September 27 for the period from September 28 to October 7, 2020 (see https://www.facebook.com/ab .alyokhin / posts / 184338443209059).

As we have noted several times, including the previous forecast monitor for Ukraine with estimates of the 7-day accuracy (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/186173379692232), one of the significant factors of accuracy is minimal interference, and often, the lack of effect from the intervention, the human factor in the course of the epidemic development. Probably, this is precisely the situation that has now developed in Ukraine, despite all the drama of the epidemiological situation in the country. The role of the human factor in Ukraine, judging by statistics and forecast calculations, can only reduce to providing more freedom to the coronavirus, which will not miss it.

The results of evaluating the accuracy of the current forecast presented in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–11.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the 10-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error of MAE and the average absolute error in percent MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate on an accrual basis, the forecast as a whole.

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

Average absolute percentage errors (MAPE * estimates) for the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are at the following level:

- total number of infected people — 0.45%;

- total number of deaths — 0.85%;

- total number of recovered — 0.57%;

- number of active cases — 0.73%.

The errors in forecasting the most important derived indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates) are showing in Table. 2:

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.99%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.64%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.46%,

Visually, the degree of correspondence of statistical and forecast data allows you to evaluate the diagrams in Fig. 1–11.

Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period;

- boundaries of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.01).

In fig. 1, the boundaries of the confidence interval hidden due to their imposition on the main graphs.

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 reflected:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals of the 10-day forecast (p = 0.3).

Diagrams Fig. 9–11 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicators for the same observation period, as well as for a forecasting period of 30 days.

All these diagrams clearly demonstrate the extremely high accuracy of the 10-day forecast, which means that the negative trends in the development of the epidemiological situation in Ukraine that have formed in the pre-forecast period and the lack of effective efforts to curb the spread of coronavirus on the part of citizens and the authorities are still there.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)