A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (M1)

4 min readOct 19, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

19/10/2020. No F-241.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/190567925919444

Today we present the third assessment of the accuracy forecast results of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine. This is our first forecast for Ukraine, which retained quite satisfactory forecasting properties after a three-week period. Unfortunately, as will be shown below, this is more than convincing evidence of the extremely negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in our country.

This forecast was made 22 days ago using our M1 model based on statistics up to and including September 27th for the period from September 28th to October 7th, 2020 (see https://www.facebook.com/ ab.alyokhin / posts / 184338443209059).

The results of evaluating the accuracy of the 21-day forecast M1 presented in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–11.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the 21-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error of MAE and the average absolute error in percent MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate * on an accrual basis , the forecast as a whole.

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

Derived indicators highlighted in gray in both tables, the forecasting accuracy of which determined by the forecasting accuracy of the main epidemic indicators.

Average absolute percentage errors (MAPE * estimates) for the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are at the following level:

- total number of infected people — 1.57%;

- total number of deaths — 0.77%;

- total number of recovered — 1.26%;

- number of active cases — 3.48%.

The errors in forcasting the most important synthetic indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates) are as follows (Table 2):

- mortality rate I (TC) — 1.44%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.79%;

- IP progress indicator — 1.25%,

These ratings are clearly worse with the previous rating monitor dated October 13, 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/188640612778842). However, these differences also allow us to judge the nature of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in our country.

Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period through October 18 inclusive;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of the point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.01) of the 10-day forecast.

In Fig. 1 the boundaries of the confidence interval are hidden due to their imposition on the main graphs.

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 reflected:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals of the 10-day forecast (p = 0.3).

Diagrams Fig. 9–11 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicators for the same observation period, as well as for a forecasting period of 30 days.

Diagrams Fig. 1 and Fig. 5 show the degree to which the actual infection rates exceed the forecasted values. Given the negative nature of the model trend itself, exceeding the forecast level indicates a significant deterioration in the situation.

The trend of changes in the number of recovered patients is also unfavorable (Fig. 3 and Fig. 7). Here the situation has also deteriorated significantly in relation to negative trends.

Only the record mortality rates (Fig. 2, Fig. 6) remained at the same record level, obeying an equally negative trend reflected by the model trend.

Indicators of active cases (Fig. 4, Fig. 8) derived from other indicators and obeyed the patterns of growth in the number of infected and recovered, inheriting their negative character.

This also explains the progress bar trajectory behavior (Fig. 11), which is the only synthetic indicator (Fig. 9–11) is very sensitive (such its arithmetic nature) to the mentioned features of the COVID-19 epidemic development.

As a result, over the past three weeks, despite the pessimistic forecast, the reality turned out to be even more pessimistic.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)