A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
06/26/2020. No 104.
On June 21, 2020, we published a prognosis monitor dedicated to the coronavirus epidemic COVID-19 in Ukraine, which contained forecasts of the main indicators of the epidemic for a lead-time of 10 and 30 days (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin / posts / 154420372867533). For the development of forecasts, statistical data accumulated by June 21, 2020 inclusive were using.
This forecast caused some confusion among our friends and acquaintances with their pessimism. However, like all our previous forecasts for various countries of the world, it was basing solely on an analysis of the trends that had developed by the time the forecast was making and extrapolated to the near future.
Meanwhile, the epidemic of coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine, taking advantage of the connivance of all those who should have prevented this, is setting one anti-record after another. This aroused interest in assessing the accuracy of our forecast in such a turbulent period of the development of the epidemic after 5 days.
Unfortunately, once again our forecasts are quite accurate. This is eloquently evidencing by the data in the tables shown in Fig. 1 and fig. 2, which characterize the accuracy of the forecast for the first 5 days of the forecast period.
As usual, in the table. Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the epidemic for 5 days of the forecast period, the absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error MAE and the average absolute error in percent of MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate on an accrual basis.
In the table. Figure 2 shows the same data on mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator.
The data from these tables indicate that the model correctly recorded the prevailing trends at the time of making the forecast, which clearly indicate that the spread of infection has gone out of control.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators