A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
11.08.2020. No 136.
Today we publish another forecast for the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine with a 10-day lead for the period from August 12 to 21, 2020. This is a technical forecast in addition to the previous one (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin / posts / 169939241315646), compiled for the period from 8-th to 17-th August, with overlapping lead periods. We plan to monitor the performance of both monitors.
The results of updated forecast calculations based on statistical data for the entire observation period, including data for August 11, 2020, are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;
- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecasting period;
- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).
Diagrams Fig. 9–10 reflect:
- actual trajectories of the level of the reproductive number R0 and the average absolute increase in the infected over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.
Diagrams Fig. 11–13 reflect:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the specified indicators for the forecasting period.
The 4 days that have passed since the previous forecast was making, in fact, not in any way affect the nature of the forecast trajectories. Therefore, we will leave the main indicators of this forecast without comment, sending those interested in them to the previous forecast monitor (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/169939241315646).
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator