A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
07.08.2020. No 130.
Today’s monitor contains a forecast of the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine using an experimental version of the model with a lead of 10 days for the period from August 8 to 17, 2020.
The results of forecast calculations based on statistical data for the entire observation period, including data for August 7, 2020, are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;
- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
It follows from these charts that, in accordance with the forecasts, it is expecting that the recent growth trends in the indicators of the total number of infected, dead and recovered, as well as the number of active patients, are expecting.
The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecasting period;
- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).
Note that daily indicators, due to their significant variability due to the complexity of the forecasted processes, represent an extremely difficult object to predict. This explains both the wide confidence intervals for the forecasts of these indicators, and the relatively high probability of forecast errors.
These diagrams predict some stabilization of the level of daily indicators as a trend, which is the basis for predicting further growth of cumulative indicators (Fig. 1–4).
Diagrams Fig. 9–10 reflect:
- actual trajectories of the level of the reproductive number R0 and the average absolute increase in infected people over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the specified indicators for the forecasting period.
The projected levels of these indicators are also in line with the expanding epidemic.
Diagrams Fig. 11–13 reflect:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.
The mortality rate in Ukraine, as follows from the diagrams in Fig. 11–12 is quite stable, still low and showing a weak downtrend.
The forecast progress indicator (Fig. 13) reacts negatively to the growth trends in the number of infected and active cases, demonstrating a downward trend in the forecast period.
Thus, the mathematical model for the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine does not reveal significant positive trends in the available statistics and, in accordance with this, builds a relatively bleak picture in the short term.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator