A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

15/11/2020. No F-262.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/198051235171113

This monitor dedicated to the accuracy analysis of the weekly Mc consensus forecast component, compiled for the period from November 9 to 15, 2020 and published on November 8, 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin / posts / 196077685368468).

Recall that the consensus forecast (Mc) is an averaging of private forecasts obtained using various models and techniques used by our working group in forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic.

The results of accuracy assessing of the consensus forecast are showing in table. 1–3.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for 7 days of the forecast period. The absolute (AE) and relative (PE) errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error MAE and the average absolute error in percent MAPE, including this the same assessment of MAPE on a cumulative basis.

Table 2 shows the same data for similar daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine.

Table 3 shows similar data for mortality rates I (TC), I (CC, IP progress indicator and average absolute increase in infected (AAG).

Average absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for the main cumulative indicators of the epidemic (Table 1):

- total number of infected people — 0.12%;

- total number of deaths — 0.68%;

- total number of recovered — 0.42%;

- number of active cases — 0.32%.

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for the main daily indicators of the epidemic (Table 2):

- total number of infected people — 2.25%;

- total number of deaths — 20.73%;

- total number of recovered — 18.13%;

- number of active cases — 12.87%.

MAPE estimates for derived synthetic indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (Table 3):

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.58%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.40%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.36%;

- average absolute increase in infected with AAG — 0.12%.

Unlike the forecast of November 2 (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/196077685368468), the accuracy of this forecast is significantly higher due to the absence of obvious anomalies and abrupt shifts in the development of the epidemic over the forecast period and more correct consideration of the latest trends in models.

You can visually assess the degree of compliance of the actual data with the forecasted ones using the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Epidemic cumulative trajectories, as you can see from these charts, no longer contain the anomalous outliers that were characteristic of the previous week. As a result, it is in good agreement with the forecasted real situation.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

These diagrams confirm what was saying above. The only thing to pay attention to is a more moderate, in comparison with the previous week, daily increase in deaths (Fig. 5).

Fig. 9–12 are given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in infected, mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- estimated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

Such a measured and still extremely negative nature of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine also favorably affected the high accuracy of forecasts of the above synthetic indicators.

In general, both the actual data and their compliance with the forecast calculations indicate the continuation of the uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine, which expressed in an ever-accelerating growth in the total number of infected, dead and active cases. The accelerated growth in the number of those who recovered is only an arithmetic consequence of the accelerated growth in the number of infected (the number of patients in mild form is proportional to the total number of patients). Therefore, the pride in the voice with which the number of recovered high officials and leading news channels is voiced is clearly inappropriate, since these figures only indicate the scale of an unforeseen catastrophe (the number of cases) called the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine