A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

29/11/2020. No F-273.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/207358754240361

The next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from November 30 to December 6 (the main short-term forecast) and to December 27, 2020 (an approximate medium-term 4-week forecast) was compiled on the basis of official statistics inclusive November 29, using a set of models of epidemics developed by us.

In the diagrams, the index “i” in the figure numbers indicates the data of the interval forecast, the index “c” — the indicators of the consensus forecast. The interval forecast based on the smallest and largest values of the particular forecasts, the consensus forecast is an averaging of the particular forecasts.

The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12 with corresponding indices.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the 28-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the 28-day forecast period.

Fig. 9–12 are given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), as well as the progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

Despite the fact that this week given rise to some hopes for positive shifts of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine (see today’s forecast monitor with an analysis of the accuracy of the previous forecast https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/207117104264526). The new forecast calculations, as the diagrams above show, reacted only to a small extent to these expectations, suggesting, overall, the continued negative nature of the epidemic in the country.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)