A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

15/11/2020. No F-263.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/198175755158661

The next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from November 16 to 22 (main short-term forecast) and December 13, 2020 (approximate medium-term forecast) was compiled basis on statistical data available inclusive November 15, using a set of models developed by our Working Group.

In this monitor, the “i” index in the figure numbers indicates the interval forecast data, the “c” index indicates the consensus forecast. The interval forecast based on the smallest and largest values of the particular forecasts, the consensus forecast is an averaging of the particular ones.

The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12 with corresponding indices.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Fig. 9–12 are given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), as well as the progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- estimated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

The past week, in contrast to the week preceding it characterized by the absence of anomalous outliers of statistical data, although it demonstrated the same extreme (record) character. Since such negative of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine has already become a trend, the current forecast assumes their preservation in the near future.

Despite the fact that the introduction of new quarantine restrictions usually affects the main parameters of the epidemic with some time lag, we will closely monitor the appearance of the slightest positive shifts in the epidemic development in Ukraine.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine