A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (Мc)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

06/12/2020. No F-277.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/212407330402170

The forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from December 7 to December 13 (the main short-term forecast) and to January 3, 2021 (an approximate medium-term 4-week forecast) was compiled basis on official statistics, available on December 6, using a set of models of epidemics development designed by us.

This forecast drawn up at a time when there were obvious signs of some positive shifts of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine. In the near future, it will become clear whether this was the birth of new trends or a temporary anomaly. This situation has created difficulties not only for forecast developers, but also for forecasting methods. In particular, in the process of developing forecasts, it became clear that even minor changes in certain parameters of the models led to a qualitative change in the forecast trajectories.

Despite this, we tried to remain in those positions that do not allow the active use of the intuition of forecast developers, and the transformation of forecasting tools into fortune telling tools.

Recall that at present, in addition to the author’s systemic model of an epidemic like SEIRD, within the framework of consensus forecasting, we use the SARIMA, ETS (Holt-Winters’ seasonal method), TCM models and the author’s statistical modeling method of time series with a seasonal component. The models that we develop using the FB Prophet statistical modeling package are at the testing stage and are not yet involved in the formation of a consensus forecast.

The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12 with the corresponding indices and demonstrate the possible (from the standpoint of one or another forecasting technology and corresponding models) continuation of the trends in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country these days.

In all charts, the “i” in the figure numbers indicates the interval forecast data, and the “c” index indicates the consensus forecast indicators. The interval forecast based on the smallest and largest values of particular forecasts; the consensus forecast is an averaging of particular forecasts.

Fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine over the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 28-day forecast period.

Fig. 9–12 given:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the mortality rates I (TC) and (I (CC), as well as the progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- estimated trajectory of these indicators for a 28-day (4-week) forecasting period.

As follows from the diagrams above, the forecasts allow both the continuation of openly negative tendencies that persisted in Ukraine for a long time, and the consolidation of positive shifts of the last week as new tendencies. Unfortunately, both of them are still generally negative, which does not allow us to talk about the beginning of containing the coronavirus spread in the country.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine